future BMW electric motorcycles in doubt

[Richard230]

In Issue 1 of 2020, Cycle World magazine interviews Markus Schramm, BMW Motorrad’s director. He is quoted as making the following statement in response to a question asking if “BMW Motorrad will produce electric bikes”. Mr. Schramm says that: “In the urban environment, it is possible there will be an electric BMW motorcycle in five years. In the touring, off-road, and sport segments, I am not sure that we will see them.”

[WildWilly]

I find the 5 year comment confusing. I would have thought they'd have one in 2020.

[notacop]

“In the urban environment, it is possible there will be an electric BMW"

MAkes sense to me. Not bothering to try to make a touring electric is probably smart. The city bike that a short distance commuter would use is sensible.
You could do an off road dirt bike but maybe a 2 hour battery pack would make it a poor competitor to light weight gas engined offerings.

[Richard230]

“In the urban environment, it is possible there will be an electric BMW"

MAkes sense to me. Not bothering to try to make a touring electric is probably smart. The city bike that a short distance commuter would use is sensible.
You could do an off road dirt bike but maybe a 2 hour battery pack would make it a poor competitor to light weight gas engined offerings.

Jumping into the low-power electric city bike market is not going to be very profitable for BMW as there are over a million cheap Chinese urban scooters and motorcycles sold every year around the world.

[notacop]

True enough and there is probably very little desire for a high performance short distance sport electric. Especially at the price that would required to cover the development.
In either case it would be the Rondel on the side that buyers would be paying for.

[Richard230]

True enough and there is probably very little desire for a high performance short distance sport electric. Especially at the price that would required to cover the development.
In either case it would be the Rondel on the side that buyers would be paying for.

As usual.....

[notacop]

I'll tell you that's the reason of owned so many. If I polished nothing else, it was the roundel that gleamed like a bull's ass in the moonlight!

[rcb78]

Considering they already have the C Evolution it makes sense. I know it's just a scooter, but how well it's been received is probably what they are basing their decision on. They have the platform, they just need to move it into something like a 310 chassis, but only if there's a market for a 310 size electric that's probably going to cost around $15k. I mean it's cheaper than Zero or Alta, but you can buy a LOT of other motos for that much money that will be cover a much larger range of uses.
I think the real tipping point for these is going to be market volatility for fuel, i.e. as long as fuel is affordable, electric motos don't make financial sense with small displacement bikes already getting such good economy. It's different with cars where you can potentially triple or quadruple your fuel economy along with getting rid of most of your maintenance costs. Bikes are already less expensive, the majority of us can do our own simple maintenance so that expense is not a huge factor. Even mid-size bikes in the 100hp range can double the fuel economy of most mid size cars in city traffic. So where is the incentive to spend 50% more money just to save an extra $10/week in fuel?

[mearchd]

Electric bike is a new way for commuting. It is friendly to our live environment. I got one from eskute.co.uk, which really helps me

[Lighning]

Give it time and they will have them. Electric vehicles are the only way to go once the charging network is built out.

[Richard230]

Give it time and they will have them. Electric vehicles are the only way to go once the charging network is built out.

And provided that the price of electricity does not become too outrageous, as I worry might be the case in the future from Northern and Central California's electricity provider, PG&E, as the ratepayers continue to pay for damages caused by their equipment malfunctioning, resulting in devastating wild fires.

[Lighning]

The fossil fuel industry also is probably going to step up the ecological disasters and Putin controls the price of oil and natural gas. FUBAR?

Btw did you see that last devastating fire in CA was caused after a something in the system detected a problem and the guy they sent out decided since he couldn’t drive to the spot he wasn’t going to walk it and so looked with binoculars and then he split. The fire started a little while later.

[N4HHE]

Give it time and they will have them. Electric vehicles are the only way to go once the charging network is built out.

You suffer from the "gas station fallacy". The notion EVs require gas stations on every street corner to be viable. The lesson Tesla has taught is toy EVs such as BMW i3, Fiat 500e, and Nissan LEAF with "this is all you need" range are not "all you need". When realistic range hit 250 miles EV sales soared. With 250 mile batteries with a single charge one can comfortably stay in the middle SOC (where battery wear is the least) for most days of use. Then charge at home, at night, when grid surplus is greatest and rates the lowest.

[Richard230]

Pacific, Graft and Explosion has a special low nighttime electricity rate for their customers who own an electric car. But they will not offer that rate to their customers who only own an electric motorcycle. That likely means that they are probably getting a financial kickback from some government agency for doing so that is encouraging people to buy electric cars and motorcycles are off of their radar screen. Everything that PG&E does is all about the bottom line and keeping their investors happy. They only give their customers a break when being forced to do so or when they can make money somehow from the program.

[N4HHE]

Much of the country “gets” TOU billing EV or not. Cheaper rates at night. Some buy Tesla Powerwalls even without solar just to charge at night for use during the day. And to carry thorough intentional and unintentional blackouts.

[Richard230]

Around here we are getting a base rate (with various tiers and depending upon your location and time of the year) during the day, but the rates go up starting at 4pm until 9pm so as to reduce the stress on the electric grid and power suppliers. After 9pm the rates go back down to the daytime rate. But there is no break after that time and during the early morning, unless you have a "smart meter", own an electric car and are on the special EV rate program. I typically recharge my Zero early in the morning before going for a ride.

[N4HHE]

You have to have a smart meter for the billing rate to vary during the day.

[Daboo]

...and Putin controls the price of oil and natural gas. FUBAR?

Not really. The USA was oil independent till January 21st when the Biden administration shut down the leases and cancelled pipelines. That happened and changed the Supply side of the equation. Putin might be controlling the price now...but only because we opened the door for him.

The energy situation is really strange. When I was growing up, we were told the oil came from dinosaurs. Well that's been proven wrong. We thought we were running out of oil (Peak Oil), and that's been proven wrong. Nuclear looked great...till some environmentalists caused an uproar. So we turned to solar and wind. It works well...if the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. Hydroelectric seemed like the answer decades ago in the Pacific Northwest, but now there's a push to tear down the dams so salmon can swim upstream.

What worries me is things like when the bureaucrats wanted to shut down the Line 5 pipeline that supplied the mid-west. Let's just shut it off with the coldest temps of the year coming up. The people living there can get their energy from "green" supplies...except those haven't been built yet and won't be available for years. But that's okay, the bureaucrats who wanted it shut down probably lived elsewhere and they won't freeze to death.

Chris

[Lighning]

Give it time and they will have them. Electric vehicles are the only way to go once the charging network is built out.

You suffer from the "gas station fallacy". The notion EVs require gas stations on every street corner to be viable. The lesson Tesla has taught is toy EVs such as BMW i3, Fiat 500e, and Nissan LEAF with "this is all you need" range are not "all you need". When realistic range hit 250 miles EV sales soared. With 250 mile batteries with a single charge one can comfortably stay in the middle SOC (where battery wear is the least) for most days of use. Then charge at home, at night, when grid surplus is greatest and rates the lowest.

Fallacy? I am living that very electric dream with my only automobile. Are you just dreaming?

And yes. Putin is running OPEC and has been since we had the last President. Guess you didn’t notice how much power Putin gained over those four years? Well now we all get to pay for not noticing.

[Richard230]

You have to have a smart meter for the billing rate to vary during the day.

The problem that I have with my "smart meter" that measures my electric power usage hour by hour, is that the rate changes from day to day during the month and I have not been able to understand how the system works. For the past year I was paying a flat 26 cents per kWh each month at my tier 1 rate. Then PG&E changed their billing system so that it varied from one part of the month to another part of the month. Last month the rate varied from 30 to 40 cents per kWh during certain periods of October.

However, my daughter believes that smart meters radiate the neighborhood and won't let PG&E install a smart meter at her home (she also will not buy a microwave oven). So they charge her an extra $5 a month because they need to send someone out to read her old-style meter manually. However, last month, as my prices were going up and down but were always substantially greater than the 26 cents per kWh during the previous months, she continued to pay 26 cents per kWh. That kind of rate juggling that somehow appears to be facilitated by the use of smart meters is what is currently driving me crazy. How can I manage my electric power consumption and my budget when the rate doesn't stay the same from day to day? And why should that apparently be happening only to customers with a smart meter? The entire rate system is anything but transparent to the customer and you are stuck just paying your bill every month and hoping that you have enough money in your checking account to cover the costs.

When electric vehicles become more mainstream and are being used by the majority of the driving public, crazy power rates that fluctuate constantly, need to be stabilized somehow. And that goes double for commercial power charging stations, where each one could have a different billing system, sometimes based upon time spent connected to the charger and at other systems based upon the amount of power consumed - to say nothing of the need to have a paid subscription to be able to connect to some commercial chargers.

The other thing that I wonder about (changing the subject somewhat) is if the government builds hundreds of thousands of charging stations around the U.S., as is currently being proposed, who will manage them, do the billing and make the repairs when needed? I really doubt it will be some government agency. I see that ball being tossed around for some time. It is one thing to build infrastructure and it is another thing to operate and maintain it.

[Lighning]

Pretty sure it is called “free enterprise.” Just like gas stations, power stations, etc. The government will just provide the loans or turn them over when completed.

[Richard230]

Pretty sure it is called “free enterprise.” Just like gas stations, power stations, etc. The government will just provide the loans or turn them over when completed.

But to my knowledge the government never built gas stations and then turned them over to Chevron, BP, Arco, Union Oil, etc. Free enterprise is fine, but taxpayers shouldn't be paying the bill for a private company to own something built by the government without the government being paid back or otherwise compensated in some way - perhaps by making the usage of the charging stations at a minimal cost that just covers the operation and maintenance of the facilities without generating a profit for the operator. Perhaps they could be operated by a non-profit agency?

[Daboo]

Good point, Richard. The government didn't build gas stations. It was a profitable endeavor, so private money was invested. As the demand increased, the supply side responded. If people (not government) want electric vehicles, the demand will increase and enterprising people will build charging stations to make a profit.

When the government gets involved, it seems like a lot of waste happens and it costs much more money than it would otherwise. Not only that, but it also seems like those in government who make the decisions, make a fortune in the process. Non-profits aren't the answer either. Just because an agency is "non-profit" doesn't mean they don't waste money. It just means they spend all they get in.

I read something a month or so ago that said a majority of people who bought EVs went back to gas vehicles to replace them. The inconvenience was more than they were willing to endure.

Chris

[N4HHE]

But to my knowledge the government never built gas stations and then turned them over to Chevron, BP, Arco, Union Oil, etc. Free enterprise is fine, but taxpayers shouldn't be paying the bill for a private company to own something built by the government without the government being paid back or otherwise compensated in some way - perhaps by making the usage of the charging stations at a minimal cost that just covers the operation and maintenance of the facilities without generating a profit for the operator. Perhaps they could be operated by a non-profit agency?

Such attempts to manage the marketplace always fail. Operators learn how to keep costs high, how to hoodwink the auditors, which keeps their promised percentage of expenses comfortable. Meanwhile the brilliant government “protects” the monopoly. Costs rise. No innovation. QoS deteriorates.

Consider “public education” as a bad example.

[N4HHE]

Good point, Richard. The government didn't build gas stations. It was a profitable endeavor, so private money was invested. As the demand increased, the supply side responded. If people (not government) want electric vehicles, the demand will increase and enterprising people will build charging stations to make a profit.

See Tesla and their Supercharger network for example. In most of the country Tesla charges $0.26/kWh for Supercharging. That would be a bargain for Richard but my home rate is just under $0.10/kWh 24 hrs/day. The government funded Electrify America rates are higher than Tesla’s.

When the government gets involved, it seems like a lot of waste happens and it costs much more money than it would otherwise. Not only that, but it also seems like those in government who make the decisions, make a fortune in the process. Non-profits aren't the answer either. Just because an agency is "non-profit" doesn't mean they don't waste money. It just means they spend all they get in.

I read something a month or so ago that said a majority of people who bought EVs went back to gas vehicles to replace them. The inconvenience was more than they were willing to endure.

Chris

I remember that claim about 5 years ago. It said many (not most) EV owners were buying ICE as second vehicles. And a large number had a pathetic Nissan LEAF.

I have been driving a Tesla Model S for 8 years. I have since purchased a Subaru Outback and a Ford F-150. Tesla is a poor choice to haul dirtbikes. Outback does a good job. But an Outback is insufficient for maintaining a large piece of land currently 65 miles from where I live. Tesla is great for running out there and back. Frankly if I could only keep one it would have to be the F-150.

[Lighning]

I also said loans and that may be the only way the government will be involved. Either way electric vehicles are the future and the only thing holding them back are lack of inventory of the most desirable models. Dealers are charging up to $10,000 over list for a VW electric crossover (list price $41,200). I own an overlander 4X4 Ford Ranger and 2 other ICE vehicles and I prefer to drive the electric, even with needing to spend 30-40 minutes to top off the tank at 217 miles range now and then (my range with only 80% charge). The charging network is adequate in my area but a lot of new chargers are already under construction nearby. But my F800GT is a close second to take and the most fun.